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Geopolitical Forecasting (GF) Challenge

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Posted February 12, 2018

Can you create a method to predict future geopolitical outcomes that is better than current state-of-the-art methods?

Decision makers rely on the Intelligence Community to provide accurate and relevant forecasts, and IARPA is working to identify methods to maximize the quality of these forecasts. IARPA’s Geopolitical Forecasting (GF) Challenge invites individuals or teams to develop innovative solutions and methods for integrating crowdsourced forecasts and other data into accurate, timely forecasts of geopolitical events.

Solvers will be competing against each other and in parallel with a similarly structured research program funded by IARPA. Overall, IARPA is seeking novel approaches that can help further current methodologies and improve the accuracy and timeliness of geopolitical forecasts. Over the course of seven months, the GF Challenge solvers will be asked to produce forecasts to a series of questions like:

  • Who will win the upcoming presidential election in Egypt?
  • What will the spot price of Brent Crude oil be on [date]?

In order to answer these questions, solvers will be given access to a continuously updated stream of forecast judgments produced by a crowd of human forecasters and will be allowed to use other data sources to produce their solutions. The challenge presents an opportunity for individuals and teams to earn prizes by creating methods that successfully forecast a wide variety of geopolitical events, such as political elections, international conflict, disease outbreaks, and macro-economic indicators.

PRIZES

Solvers will be able to compete on their own or form teams to compete for a total prize purse of $200,000. The prize amounts shown are dependent upon certain criteria and/or participation requirements. Challenge results and solutions will be reviewed at an IARPA forecasting Workshop in Washington, D.C.

Source: iarpa.gov

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