Seismologists at the UA are part of a global community of scientists and experts working to better understand earthquakes and help communities to be prepared for the inevitable.
To the Earth, it was just a shudder. The sudden thrust that caused the tragedy of the Nepal earthquake on April 25 occurred about nine miles underground beneath the Himalayas, releasing built-up stress of unimaginable force along the major fault line where the Indian Plate, carrying India, is slowly diving underneath the Eurasian Plate, carrying much of Europe and Asia.
The shudder raced around the planet, grazing the boundary where the Earth’s molten core meets the so-called mantle of partially molten rock, at a depth of about 1,800 miles. Fifteen minutes later, the temblor reached Tucson, too weak to be felt by anyone but with enough force to send a stir through a highly sensitive instrument locked in a vault deep in the granite of the Santa Catalina Mountains just north of the city.
“Even though this devastating earthquake happened halfway around the world, more than 8,000 miles away from us, there was enough of vertical ground displacement that our seismometer recorded it,” said Susan Beck, professor of geosciences at the University of Arizona. “Any earthquake this large is registered all around the world, in real time, and the data are being published globally within minutes.”
When a quake of the magnitude of the one in Nepal — 7.8 on the Richter scale — occurs, seismologists like Beck immediately look at the data and analyze them for the potential of aftershocks.
“When anything this size happens, our group is on it because we know how devastating these are, and we use the opportunity to learn something,” Beck said.
Beck is part of a tectonics research group at the UA that studies where the faults are at depth along that plate boundary. The last big earthquake in that region occurred in 1934, just to the east of where the most recent quake hit. Registering at 8.2 magnitude, that tremor, too, caused much damage and loss of human life.
“India and Eurasia collide, and all that pressure builds up the Himalayas in Tibet and Nepal,” Beck explained. “So we have known these earthquakes happen in that region, but this one didn’t rupture quite up to the surface of the fault — unlike, for example, in California, where we see a trace on the surface along the San Andreas Fault. In the case of the Nepal quake, we don’t see any offset at the surface. Therefore we share some concern that it may rupture in the future, causing another earthquake. We don’t know if and when that might happen, but we know the fault is capable of doing that.”
Beck explained that there is a possibility the fault could slip aseismically, meaning “it just creeps, instead of releasing the pressure in another earthquake, but we may not know until a few months or years from now. But it is also possible that it will slip in another damaging earthquake.”
Using data from networks of seismometer stations across the globe, seismologists can — to a certain extent — tell the outline of a fault deep underground. Geologists do this by measuring the arrival times of two shock waves caused by a quake: The primary wave is the first seismic arrival that comes to the station from the epicenter. It is followed — usually within minutes, depending on the location — by a so-called shear wave that travels a bit slower. The delay between the two can give us the earthquake location along with the aftershocks that outline the fault surface, according to Beck.
“If you look at a map over a big area and see where the aftershocks are, you can outline that as an approximation of the fault surface at depth,” Beck said. “Most of the aftershocks tell us where the fault plane is dipping toward the north and extend roughly in a northwest-to-southeast line, along the Himalayan front.”
The seismometer in the Tucson mountains is hosted by the UA and operated by the U.S. Geological Survey as part of the U.S. Global Seismic Network, which consists of about 120 seismic stations and is one of several networks in the world.
Housed inside a vacuum and a protective vault to keep it out of the elements and mimimize temperature swings between hot days and colder nights, the instrument is so sensitive “it can feel when someone is up there walking around,” Beck said. “We record anything from construction on Catalina Highway on Mount Lemmon to mine blasts and landslides like the one that recently happened in Sabino Canyon.”
Data are retrieved over the Internet to a number of places, where Beck and other scientists can access them within minutes after an earthquake has happened anywhere in the world.
The Tectonic Group in the UA’s Department of Geosciences includes experts from disciplines as varied as seismology, structural geology, sedimentology, geochemistry and geodesy (mapping and measuring) who work on geologically active regions around the world, especially mountain building zones such as the Andes, the Himalayas and the Rockies, in addition to other earthquake-prone regions such as the Mediterranean.
Leading group members Peter DeCelles and Paul Kapp, both professors of geology, have worked in research to estimate the geometry of what faults like the one that ruptured in Nepal are like at depth.
“They have a pretty good idea where these faults are, and it’s pretty clear that the earthquake happened on one of those faults,” Beck said. “Everybody in the field is watching the Himalayan front right now to see if there will be more earthquakes. It’s always a possibility, so you start paying attention and looking for clues.”
Beck emphasized that the area of the Nepal earthquake is one of the most earthquake-prone on the planet.
“People know that, just like we know the San Andreas Fault is capable of earthquakes, so it’s not so much an issue of ‘geologic forecasting’ if you will, but more of a social issue,” she said. “It takes money to retrofit buildings and reinforce bridges and so forth. Many people work at the interface of science and policy to help people prepare, and there are lots of things you can do as a community and a city, but if you live in a place where buildings are old and need to be retrofitted, especially historic sites, the costs are enormous. What you can hope to do is make new construction better.”
Beck also said it is important for people in areas affected by earthquakes to realize that it’s a fallacy to think that “now that the earthquake has happened, the fault has slipped, we should be good for a while.”
“The message we want to get out there is that if you live in that region, you can’t assume that you’ll be OK for another hundred years,” she said. “We know that the fault is much bigger than the area of this earthquake. We can’t quantify the likelihood, but we want to try to prepare and at least let people know they have to be careful.”
‘A Massive Tragedy’
The quake’s aftermath has been especially emotional for Kirk Astroth, assistant dean of the UA’s College of Agriculture and Life Sciences. He has been busy trying to confirm the safety of nearly 30 people with whom he worked last summer in Nepal. He said five are still unaccounted for. The death toll has exceeded 5,200.
“It’s been a massive tragedy, and so I have also been making donations of funds and encouraging others to do so if they want to help,” Astroth said. “4-H Nepal is also launching efforts to help youth in the rural areas who are now homeless and in need of food, water and medicine.
“So many places that I visited are now destroyed, but at least the people there are alive.”
Astroth, director of the Arizona 4-H Youth Development Program within CALS, visited Nepal to teach local youth development professionals the finer points of creating a 4-H program and to lay the groundwork for three members of the Nepal National Youth Federation to attend a global 4-H summit in South Korea. As a result, the group in January received official government recognition for the Nepal 4-H national organization.
Youth in Nepal face great challenges, Astroth said. They lack resources, educational training and opportunities. Their prospects for the future are dismal: The average adult makes less than $2 per day, and even agricultural production is contracting.
“Planes are full of young Nepali men leaving the country to find work,” said Astroth, who was recognized for his assistance by Winrock International, an organization that works to empower the disadvantaged, increase economic opportunity and sustain natural resources.
Source: University of Arizona