Decision Resources, one of the world’s leading research and advisory firms for pharmaceutical and healthcare issues, finds that the atrial fibrillation drug market will experience dramatic growth over the next decade, increasing from $2.7 billion in 2011 to $9.2 billion in 2021 in the United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom and Japan.
The Pharmacor advisory service entitled finds that novel oral anticoagulants developed for the prevention of stroke in atrial fibrillation patients will be the main catalysts of market growth, accounting for more than three-quarters market share in 2021. Bristol-Myers Squibb/Pfizer’s Eliquis is expected to be the sales-leading anticoagulant and will garner more than $3 billion in 2021. The use of the new anticoagulants will result in a steep decline in sales of warfarin (Bristol-Myers Squibb’s Coumadin, Eisai’s Warfarin, generics) and other vitamin K antagonists.
“We forecast that Eliquis will be the market leader owing to its superior clinical trial data as it is the only agent to demonstrate increased efficacy and lower rates of major bleeding than warfarin,” said Decision Resources Analyst Eamonn O’Connor, Ph.D. “Bayer/Janssen’s Xarelto will be the second best-selling agent, due largely to its once-daily dosing, and will reach peak-year sales of $2 billion.”
The findings also reveal that the absence of efficacious antiarrhythmic agents with strong safety profiles is likely to continue as Gilead/Menarini’s anti-anginal agent Ranexa (ranolazine) is the only antiarrhythmic drug forecasted to launch through 2021. Despite promising trial data, Ranexa is not expected to achieve significant market share, owing primarily to the entry of generic ranolazine in 2019.
Source: Decision Resources